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Rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates are keeping would-be homesellers out of the market, according to Redfin’s latest consumer insights.
Redfin partnered with Ipsos to survey 1,802 U.S. adults about their housing choices. Of the 738 homeowners who answered questions about their future selling plans, 34 percent said they’ll never sell their home. Another 27 percent said they wouldn’t sell their home for at least another decade, and 24 percent said they’d consider selling their home in another five to 10 years. Baby boomers were most likely to say they’ll never sell (43 percent), followed by 34 percent of Gen Xers, and 28 percent of millennials and Gen Zers.
Homeowners’ reasons for staying put include having a paid-off or almost paid-off mortgage (39 percent), liking their current home (37 percent), unaffordable pricing trends in the current market (30 percent) and higher mortgage rates (18 percent). Familial obligations (16.1 percent), high homeowners association fees (7.9 percent) and exorbitant home insurance costs (4.5 percent) also contributed to homeowners’ weakened desire to move up.
Marije Kruythoff | Credit: Redfin
“The just-because movers — those who just want a bigger or nicer house — are staying put, mostly because it’s so expensive to buy a new house,” Los Angeles Redfin Premier agent Marije Kruythoff said in a prepared statement. “The people who are selling are doing so because they need to. Either they’re relocating to a different part of the country, or they’re moving due to a major life event like having a baby or taking a new job on the opposite side of the city.”
Redfin said the decline of voluntary moves will continue to stifle the market, as inventory levels struggle to rebound to pre-pandemic trends.
“… Though listings have started ticking up in recent months, a recent Redfin analysis found that just 25 of every 1,000 U.S. homes changed hands in the first eight months of 2024, the lowest turnover rate in decades,” the report read. “Housing costs have risen significantly since before the pandemic; home prices are up roughly 40 percent since then, and the weekly average mortgage rate is 6.91 percent, up from just under 4 percent in 2019.”
Although the decline of voluntary moves accelerated in 2024, it’s not a new trend.
Inman Intel examined the death of the “voluntary move” in October 2023 as strengthening market headwinds pushed homebuyers to be more stringent about their real estate plans. Agents told Intel that homebuyers mostly moved due to life events, such as a new job, a marriage or divorce, or having another child. When they made those moves, they tended to search for homes in more affordable locales, were more picky about having a turnkey-ready property, and were often able to offer a higher down payment or purchase their home in cash.
The upcoming year could yield a similar crop of homebuyers, as economists expect mortgage rates to stick around the 6 percent rate for the next one to two years. Existing home sales are projected to land at 4.25 million by the end of 2025, with most of those sales coming from homebuyers who must move.
“Unless economic growth starts to slow significantly, we expect mortgage rates to remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, moving only slightly downward to around 6 percent by the end of 2025,” Inman’s year-end economic round-up read. “However, given ongoing uncertainty over the resilience of economic growth, the stickiness of inflation, and future policy changes, we expect bouts of volatility in mortgage rates next year.”
“Many of the Sun Belt states, including Florida and Texas, and parts of the Mountain West region and Pacific Northwest have inventory levels near or above pre-pandemic norms, according to Realtor.com,” it added. “In contrast, the Midwest and Northeast have significantly fewer homes available for sale relative to 2019.”
