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With all the headwinds we’ve faced over the past few years, it has been difficult to get excited about our businesses. It’s time for that to change. This article shares the five reasons 2025 could be the best year you’ve ever had in real estate.
1. Spring always comes after winter
Everything in this world operates in cycles. Tides come in, and tides go out. Low tides are always followed by rising tides. Economically, times of expansion are always followed by times of contraction, and times of contraction are always followed by times of expansion. And every year we have spring, summer, fall, and winter seasons. Throughout history, this has always been the same and never changed.
Over the last few years, we’ve battled low inventory and affordability challenges, and this year, the NAR settlement fundamentally changed the way many of us do business. Real estate and the overall economy have been challenging for the past couple of years, but just as the tide has been receding over the last few years, the tide eventually comes back in.
Just as the economy and the number of real estate transactions have been contracting in the last few years, expansion always follows contraction.
It is time to get excited because the “winters” we have faced in real estate in the past have, without fail, always been followed by spring. Springtime for our business is coming. A time of new beginnings, new growth and new opportunities is just around the corner.
I don’t know if it will happen in the next two weeks, two months or two years, but we are closer today to the next season of expansion than we were yesterday. Prepare yourself and your business now for the opportunities that are to come.
The diligent today will be the agents that reap the greatest benefits in the future.
2. The forecasts are positive
It has been a few years since the forecasts predicted that the next year would be better than the previous year. There are three main forecasts that should excite you heading into 2025. These include the mortgage rate forecasts, the transaction forecasts, and the year-after-an-election-year historical data.
Mortgage rate forecasts
The mortgage rates have been volatile over the past few months, and although we’ve battled increasing mortgage rates over the past few years, the forecasts are for improvement in 2025. The chart below shows that Fannie Mae, MBA, Wells Fargo and NAR all project substantial improvements in mortgage rates in 2025.
Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters
Transaction forecasts
Fannie Mae economists are forecasting that at the end of this year the total number of home sales will be 4.74 million. This forecast, assuming the year finishes as they anticipate, would be the slowest pace since 1995. But the forecasts for next year predict a rebound in the number of home sales.
The chart below shows the forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA and NAR, averaging out to 5.4 million homes sold. That would represent (if both play out as forecasted) a nearly 14 percent increase in the number of transactions year-over-year.
Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters
Year-after-an-election historical data
To further confirm the likelihood of an increased number of transactions, the number of existing homes sold the year after an election has outpaced the number of homes sold in the election year 9 of the last 11 times. The chart below (also provided by Keeping Current Matters) shows the number of existing homes sold in each of the election years versus the following year.
3. There will be less competition next year
The National Association of Realtors reported on Monday, Nov. 11, that they expect 124,000 Realtors to leave the business by the end of 2025. This would represent an 8 percent decrease in the number of realtors in the coming year.
Let’s put this in perspective. The forecasts above expect transactions to increase nearly 14 percent year-over-year, and at the same time, NAR is forecasting an 8 percent decrease in the number of agents. Simply put, the number of opportunities you will have next year will go up, and the amount of competition you have will go down.
Based on these two factors, your business shouldn’t just grow next year; it has the potential to grow exponentially.
4. Technology advancements = more effectiveness (for some)
There is unimaginably better technology available today than there has been in the past. The agents that embrace these advances and harness their ability to create efficiencies will gain market share moving forward.
Whether utilizing ChatGPT for listing presentations, like I explained in this article from earlier this year, or AI tools like the Captions app for creating professionally edited video in seconds, there has never been a time in history when you could do more in less time.
The separation from the competition for tech-savvy agents will be magnified by the number of agents that bury their heads in the sand and continue to do business as they always have. Don’t get left behind. Lean into all that is available, and you will be rewarded.
5. You’re wiser, better positioned, and more prepared than you’ve ever been
Getting transactions closed has been challenging over the past few years. Many buyers were looking for reasons not to buy, even after they went under contract. Sellers became nervous as their days on the market grew. They demanded listing agents find creative ways to market and sell their homes.
This year you may have had more deals fall apart than you ever had before. You may have had listings expire and be relisted with other agents. Lessons were learned through these disappointments.
You learned how to, or remembered how to, troubleshoot issues with challenging transactions. Out of necessity, you developed new, innovative ways to market and sell your listings. You faced these challenges and without realizing it, your wisdom for doing this business at a high level grew.
The slowdown over the past few years has forced you to evaluate all your business expenses and to become lean and efficient in your business. You’re lean and prepared for the future now.
You’ve evaluated your brokerage and made sure the value you are receiving is worth the expense you pay. You’ve positioned yourself, or you’re considering it now, with the best brokerage for your business to take advantage of the opportunities to come.
The saying goes that what doesn’t kill us makes us stronger. Well, you’re still standing, and you’re more prepared than ever to see life-changing growth in your business in the coming year. The table is set and it’s time to eat. Get ready. Get excited. Get going and get after it. The best is yet to come!
