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In this exclusive series on Inman, Windermere’s Principal Economist Jeff Tucker illuminates the latest stats, reports and numbers to know this week.
Today’s number you should know: 254,000
That’s the number of jobs added this September, according to the latest jobs report released Friday, Oct. 4.
That exceeded expectations for 145,000 jobs added. Moreover, the payroll counts for July and August were revised up by 72,000 jobs combined.
It’s also the best month of job gains since March of this year, and it bucks the trend of a cooling labor market this summer.
Continuing with the September jobs report, the next number to know right now is 4.1 percent.
That’s the new unemployment rate, which ticked downward slightly from 4.2 percent. The falling unemployment rate and rebounding job growth together paint a picture of an economy in better shape than it looked this summer. In other words, investors are no longer as worried about a recession, which also means interest rates won’t have to fall as far as quickly as many were expecting in September.
Which brings me to the last key number to know right now: 6.5 percent.
That’s where the 30-year mortgage rate now stands after jumping about a quarter-point in the aftermath of the strong jobs report on Oct. 4, according to Mortgage News Daily.
You might call this the gray lining to the rainbow of excellent job growth, which is that borrowing costs have stopped falling for now and, in fact, firmed back up.
At the end of the day, it still leaves mortgages substantially cheaper than they were this spring, or at this time last year, but it’s a reminder that the rate-cutting cycle does not bring mortgage rates down in a smooth, predictable path, but rather in a “two steps down, one step up” kind of a zigzag path.
Jeff Tucker is the Principal Economist for Windermere Real Estate in Seattle, Washington. Connect with him on X or Facebook.
