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In the first eight months of 2024, only 25 out of every 1,000 U.S. homes (2.5 percent) changed ownership, marking the lowest housing turnover rate in 30 years, according to an analysis by Redfin released Monday.
The sluggish turnover reflects ongoing stagnation across the housing market, driven by high mortgage rates, rising home prices and political uncertainty, all of which have made buyers increasingly hesitant.
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“Of the homes listed this year, many have gone stale because of the lack of demand — especially homes which needed a little extra work,” Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa said in a statement. “With the majority of homeowners locked into low mortgages, rates will need to keep falling consistently for many to feel comfortable moving on from the deals they secured years ago.”
Redfin’s study analyzed turnover rates across metro areas, home types and neighborhoods from 2012 to 2024. When looking at data from earlier periods, it was determined this year’s rate marks the lowest in the past 30 years.
Elevated mortgage rates have led to a “lock-in effect,” with over 75 percent of U.S. homeowners holding rates below 5 percent. Many are reluctant to sell, as rates peaked at 7.52 percent in April. Though rates dropped to the low 6 percent range by August, home sales have not picked up significantly.
Elijah de la Campa | Redfin
Housing inventory remains lower than pre-pandemic levels, despite prices hitting record highs in 2024. Economic concerns, including a potential recession and the upcoming U.S. presidential election, have caused many buyers and sellers to adopt a cautious approach.
The rate of homes listed for sale also dropped to the lowest level since 2012, with just 32 out of every 1,000 homes listed in the first eight months of 2024, down 30 percent from pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (46 listings per 1,000 homes).
Among metro areas, Phoenix recorded the highest turnover rate, with 38 homes out of every 1,000 changing hands, followed by Newark, New Jersey (37), Nashville, Tennessee (36), and Tampa, Florida (35). Sun Belt metros like Phoenix and Nashville have maintained relatively strong market activity, especially throughout the pandemic.
On the other hand, California boasted seven of the 10 metros with the lowest turnover rates. Los Angeles had the lowest turnover rate, with only 15 homes out of every 1,000 changing hands, largely due to California’s tax laws, like Proposition 13, which incentivizes homeowners to stay put by limiting property tax increases.
Despite this, Bay Area metros like San Jose, California (+13.1 percent), San Francisco (+3.5 percent), and Oakland, California (+1.6 percent) saw a slight increase in turnover compared to 2023. Austin, however, saw the biggest decline in turnover rate since 2019, with only 30 homes per 1,000 sold in 2024, down 49 percent from 59 of every 1,000 five years ago.
