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Is a rising tide of agents plotting a revolt against their largest trade group, or even an exit from real estate?
Probably not.
But in the latest Inman Intel Index survey from the days and weeks after the Aug. 17 deadline for implementation of changes related to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) settlement of its commission-related lawsuits, agents did report a spike in negativity toward the role that the NAR plays in their industry, as well as heightened doubts over whether it’s worth sticking around in a post-settlement landscape.
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If these trends hold up, it would represent a significant shift in agent sentiment toward the industry that would be felt tangibly by brokerages and professional organizations alike.
But for a number of reasons — ranging from survey response bias to a knee-jerk response to a stressful change to agent business practices — these numbers may not hold up in the future.
In the full report below, Intel explores the question of whether these attitudes will leave a lasting imprint on an industry that has, without question, reached a distinct inflection point.
Negative shift
In recent weeks, Intel went deep on how agent sentiment toward buyer pipelines soured in the immediate aftermath of the Aug. 17 deadline. Intel also broke down the detailed reasons why agents said they expect the changes to produce downward pressure on commissions in the long run.
But these weren’t the only areas where agents reported an erosion of optimism.
In July, agents were split down the middle on whether NAR is a net positive for the industry. After the August changes went into effect, agent responses shifted in a decidedly negative direction.
- A few weeks before the August deadline, 27 percent of agents said NAR was a net-positive force for industry concerns, compared to an equal 27 percent of agents who said NAR was a net negative.
- But in the days and weeks after the deadline, only 17 percent of respondents said they believed NAR was a net positive for the industry, while 38 percent said it was a net negative.
Agents who replied to the survey in the immediate aftermath of the deadline also seemed more open to leaving the industry than those who replied in the months before the change.
- Thirty-three percent of agents said they had entertained the idea of leaving the industry sometime in the past 12 months — up from 26 percent who said the same the month before.
The combination of falling mortgage rates with the immediacy of the August deadline may also be seeping into agent assessments of the top challenges facing their businesses.
- Agents were less likely in August to name “lack of housing inventory” as their top business concern: 22 percent named inventory their top concern in August, compared to 25 percent in July.
- Instead, a growing share of agents name “commission compression/negotiation” or “lawsuit fallout” as their top business concerns: 42 percent named one of these as their top concern in August, up from 35 percent the previous month.
But while all these factors will be important to track in upcoming surveys — and some of these concerns will likely remain elevated for a while — that doesn’t mean we should immediately take a shift of this magnitude at face value.
Response bias and other pitfalls
To understand why these shifts in sentiment might need to be taken with a grain of salt, it’s important to first understand the nature of this survey.
The Intel Index is a wide-ranging survey of one of the largest, most engaged groups of agents, brokers and real estate leaders: the Inman community. This entire community is invited to participate each month through a link from the Inman website. A randomized, rotating group of Inman readers is also prompted to participate each month by email.
This process ensures that Intel receives a large number of responses. Indeed, the results over time have been fairly stable — especially in the agent and brokerage leader tracks.
At times in the past, when we have seen a major shift in sentiment in the survey results, it has often coincided with big news in the NAR settlement story. In these cases, shifts in sentiment have typically held up in the months afterward.
But the Intel Index is not a random sampling of all real estate agents. Because it’s targeting a community of engaged readers, it is more likely to reflect the opinions of experienced, successful agents who are plugged into industry news.
And, on a month like this, the results may also be skewed by response bias — in other words, more agents may feel driven to take a survey on a month when they’re also frustrated with major changes to their line of work.
Here’s an example of what that might look like:
- Agents in August’s survey skewed 3 percentage points away from franchise models and toward indies — including small indies and publicly traded non-franchisors.
Although these survey responses were real, this is unlikely to represent a meaningful influx of agents into indie brokerages. Instead, indie agents may have been more inclined to reply to a survey in the immediate aftermath of the deadline.
But there are signs that some of the negative trend in August’s survey may be due to a real, more broadly felt pessimism surrounding several settlement-related issues.
For example, it’s worth noting that not every question saw a negative shift — especially when it comes to the viability of brokerage business models.
- Agents who said they have low confidence in their brokerage’s business model made up only 15 percent of respondents in August.
- That mark was actually lower than in July, when 17 percent of agents reported their confidence in the model was low.
Ultimately, only time will tell how much of this frustration will last beyond the immediate aftermath of the deadline. Intel will continue to track these trends closely in the months ahead.
Methodology notes: This month’s Inman Intel Index survey was conducted Aug. 19-30, 2024, and received 779 responses. The entire Inman reader community was invited to participate, and a rotating, randomized selection of community members was prompted to participate by email. Users responded to a series of questions related to their self-identified corner of the real estate industry — including real estate agents, brokerage leaders, lenders and proptech entrepreneurs. Results reflect the opinions of the engaged Inman community, which may not always match those of the broader real estate industry. This survey is conducted monthly.
