Homeowners in Chicago, Washington, D.C., Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Atlanta are more likely to move over the next 90 days than in any other major market, according to a new ATTOM Data Solutions’ Pre-Mover Housing Index.
Based on mortgage application data, the index could anticipate a wave of commission checks for agents in those markets — not to mention a bonanza for ancillary businesses tied to the moving process, said Daren Blomquist, a senior vice president with the California-based real estate data analytics firm.
“A higher pre-mover index bodes well for local real estate agents, home improvement stores, moving companies and others that benefit from the halo effect of a home sale,” Blomquist said in a statement released on Thursday.
On the other hand, scarce inventory or weak demand — or some blend of both — likely characterize markets with low index scores — “which is not optimal for businesses that rely on the home sale halo effect,” Blomquist said.
Using data collected from purchase loan applications, the Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” indicator to total single family homes and condos in a given market, compared to the national average.
An index reading above 100 is higher than the national average and reflects an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 90 days in a given market. An index score below 100 suggests the opposite.
Chicago, Washington, D.C., Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Atlanta lead the pack of the 36 metro areas with at least 500,000 single-family homes and condos that are covered by the index.
When expanding the sample to 131 metro areas, Wilmington, North Carolina (206); Colorado Springs, Colorado (178); and Manchester-Nashua, New Hampshire (172) claim the top spots, followed by Chicago (168) and Washington, D.C. (166).
Markets lagging the most, according to the index, are Cleveland, Boston and Pittsburgh.
Read the full report here.