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Florida housing market trends expected to continue into 2017

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CoreLogic’s Market Pulse for August 2016 reports on the national market and local trends, including a new inside look at the rental sector. Similar to the data company’s CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, the new Single-Family Rental Index (SFRI) measures the growth of the rental market since January 2007.

After a massive growth spurt at the tail end of 2009 and into 2011 and steady growth that continued for a few years after, the SFRI shows rental price gains have recently begun to soften.

Rent growth peaked at 4.6 percent in December 2014 over the previous year, but as of May, the growth rate was 1.2 percent lower, at an annual uptick of 3.3 percent. Following a similar pattern to that seen in the homebuying market, the rental market has seen a slow-down in the high-end sector as of recently, while lower price points are holding their own.

Rent prices at the lowest end of the spectrum were up 5.3 percent in May over the previous year, marking a three-year growth trend around 5.5 percent. At the high end of the market, rentals were up 2.1 percent annually.

Other than Houston, Miami saw one of the most dramatic decreases in rental growth in May year-over-year from 2015 to 2016. Of the large cities reported, Miami the largest bump in growth since May 2015, at about 5.5 percent. That growth fell behind all other cities except for New York City, Chicago and Houston from April.

US real estate market

Boomerang buyers — homebuyers returning to the market after losing a foreclosed home — have slowly but surely made their way back into the real estate market. Looking ahead to 2017, the return of boomerang buyers has the potential to be strong, the report says.

CoreLogic reports the year is nearing seven years from the foreclosure crisis peak in 2010, which means that the ‘black mark’ of foreclosure will be officially erased from consumer credit reports.

CoreLogic reports on the hardest hit locations for boomerang buyers that returned by 2013. The three highest states for boomerang buyers — Arizona, Nevada and Michigan — saw 32 percent of its foreclosed homeowners come back to action in the market, compared to a 22 percent national average.

Almost on par with Colorado’s conditions, Florida’s boomerang buyers came back pretty strongly between 2007 and 2013, CoreLogic says, at about 20 percent. But the state is still one of the nation’s worst for its foreclosure inventory. Florida had a foreclosure inventory rate of 1.8 percent in May.

Nationally, the foreclosure rate in June 2016 was 3 percent lower than the previous month and 21.3 percent lower than the same month in 2015. Completed foreclosures increased 5.1 percent monthly in June and dipped 4.9 percent annually in the same month.

Florida housing market trends

In June, the Home Price Index increased 7 percent annually in the state of Florida, which includes distressed properties. The Sunshine State saw an increase of 0.6 percent month-over-month in June. By July, trends are expected to be at the same rate of 0.6 percent, according to CoreLogic’s forecast month-over-month change.

By next year, Florida is expected to see a similar pace for its year-over-year growth, but just a sliver lower. The forecasted growth by June 2017 is reported at 6.8 percent.

Email Kimberly Manning