Inventories declined in 15 of 19 major U.S. markets during the fourth quarter as sellers dropped their listing prices in most areas, but time on market continued to increase, indicating that demand fell faster than inventories were reduced.
That’s according to the Real-Time Housing Market Report published by Altos Research and Real IQ, which claims to be the most timely source of housing market data
"Sellers continue to adjust their price expectations downward but not quickly enough to keep pace with declining demand," Real IQ research director Stephen Bedikian said in a statement. "Until we see declines in both inventory levels and days on market, we won’t have any confidence that supply and demand are balancing out."
The report found listing prices fell in 16 of 20 major markets tracked, and that inventories fell in every market except Tampa, Miami, Charlotte and Cleveland. But average days on market increased in 15 of 17 metropolitan statistical areas for which data was available.
Markets with the slowest rate of inventory turnover included Miami (143 days), and Minneapolis and Detroit (136 days). Denver had the fastest rate of inventory turnover at 77 days, followed closely by Dallas at 80 days. The only markets where days on market decreased during the fourth quarter were Dallas and Atlanta.
Tampa and Miami saw inventory increases of 10.5 percent and 4 percent, respectively. While inventories were up for the quarter in Charlotte, they declined 5 percent in December.
Boston saw the most dramatic inventory reductions, with a decrease of 21 percent for the quarter. Minneapolis, Denver and Seattle also saw inventories fall by more than 15 percent during the quarter.
Inventories typically decline during the winter and fall, and pick up in the spring and summer, so those trends could be partly accounted for by seasonal factors.
If the economy continues to slow or enters a recession, "We may see inventories balloon again in the spring and downward pricing pressure on sellers will intensify," said Altos Research Chief Executive Officer Michael Simonsen.
Listing Inventory
|
MSA |
October |
November |
December |
Percentage change last month |
Percentage change three months |
|
Tampa |
25,337 |
28,420 |
27,987 |
-1.5 |
10.5 |
|
Miami |
46,008 |
45,143 |
47,844 |
6.0 |
4.0 |
|
Charlotte |
15,226 |
16,490 |
15,667 |
-5.0 |
2.9 |
|
Cleveland |
18,575 |
18,548 |
18,597 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
Detroit |
68,945 |
70,925 |
67,298 |
-5.1 |
-2.4 |
|
Phoenix |
41,244 |
40,246 |
40,010 |
-0.6 |
-3.0 |
|
Las Vegas |
23,545 |
23,444 |
22,302 |
-4.9 |
-5.3 |
|
San Diego |
13,948 |
13,944 |
13,135 |
-5.8 |
-5.8 |
|
Atlanta |
62,221 |
59,298 |
57,632 |
-2.8 |
-7.4 |
|
Los Angeles |
52,166 |
50,107 |
47,681 |
-4.8 |
-8.6 |
|
San Francisco |
14,434 |
13,387 |
13,129 |
-1.9 |
-9.0 |
|
Dallas |
41,494 |
40,705 |
37,334 |
-8.3 |
-10.0 |
|
New York |
30,211 |
28,858 |
26,637 |
-7.7 |
-11.8 |
|
Chicago |
69,779 |
69,157 |
61,490 |
-11.1 |
-11.9 |
|
Portland |
15,311 |
14,175 |
13,231 |
-6.7 |
-13.6 |
|
Minneapolis |
23,081 |
21,375 |
19,527 |
-8.6 |
-15.4 |
|
Denver |
19,211 |
17,861 |
16,238 |
-9.1 |
-15.5 |
|
Seattle |
24,314 |
22,374 |
20,096 |
-10.2 |
-17.3 |
|
Boston |
20,214 |
17,954 |
15,836 |
-11.8 |
-21.7 |
|
Washington, D.C.* |
— |
— |
26,012 |
— |
— |
* Revision in data collection methodology makes this metric noncomparable.
Source: Altos Research
