Come and get it

Keller-Williams Broker Associate Vincent Bindi says he's "officially ringing the dinner bell for buying opportunities" in Orange County, Calif. noting that months of inventory has dropped for 16 weeks in a row and is well below six months.

"We have now officially gone from a buyer's market to a neutral market," Bindi declares, defining four to six months of inventory as a neutral market.

Bindi is a serious number cruncher and not an industry chearleader, by the way. Last summer, he was publishing spreadsheets that suggested prices were falling than most people had realized (see previous post).

Today, Bindi says the low end of the market is the strongest, with just 4.3 months of inventory for homes priced below $450,000. That's almost considered a seller's market. Bindi hinks discretionary sellers have pulled their homes off the market to wait out the downturn, meaning the "vast majority of sales" are bank-owned properties, short sales, or homeowners who have no choice about moving and are taking 20 to 35 percent price cuts.

"Some REO properties are receiving multiple offers in the first week, and some are getting bid up 5 percent to 10 percent past the asking price. Those are the street signs of a neutral market," Bindi says.

Bindi's chart, above (right click for full size), shows total inventory of homes for sale in south Orange County dropping in the past 3 weeks (it's usually headed up this time of year, Bindi says) and the number of homes pending in escrow has hit 1,000 homes -- a level not seen since June, 2006.

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